Nairobi governor Johnson Sakaja has emerged ahead of Embakasi East MP Babu Owino in a new opinion survey on Nairobi’s 2027 gubernatorial race, with the incumbent drawing strong backing from beneficiaries of the county’s school feeding and infrastructure programmes.
The poll by darubini poll places Mr Sakaja at 48 per cent support among respondents in Nairobi County, compared with 31 per cent for Mr Owino, signalling an early advantage for the first-term governor in what is expected to become one of the country’s most closely watched political contests ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The survey, conducted between May 16 and May 19, interviewed 500 adults aged 18 years and above through face-to-face household interviews across selected counties, including Nairobi, Kisumu, Nakuru, Mombasa and Kakamega. The pollster reported a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
According to the findings, Mr Sakaja’s support is being driven largely by households benefiting from the county’s Dishi na County school feeding programme, particularly families with children enrolled in public primary schools.
The survey further found that about 58 per cent of respondents acknowledged ongoing ward-level road projects associated with the county administration, suggesting that visible infrastructure works may be shaping public perception of the governor’s performance.
“Popularity among aspirants is largely influenced by national political affiliations, while performance remains a major factor for incumbent leaders,” the report states.
Despite trailing in the survey, Mr Owino retained significant support among younger voters and residents of informal settlements, where he has cultivated a reputation for grassroots mobilisation and direct engagement.
The findings point to an emerging political divide in Nairobi, with Mr Sakaja appearing to consolidate support among older and family-oriented voters, while Mr Owino maintains traction among youthful urban constituencies.
The poll also underscores growing political awareness among Nairobi voters, with the county recording the highest levels of awareness regarding gubernatorial aspirants among all counties surveyed.
Elsewhere, the survey showed Tom Ojienda leading the race in Kisumu County with 40 per cent support, ahead of Deputy Governor Mathews Owili.
In Nakuru County, Susan Kihika led with 42.5 per cent support, followed by former governor Lee Kinyanjui at 25 per cent.
The pollster cautioned that political developments occurring after the survey period could shift voter sentiment, but said the findings provide an important benchmark in understanding the evolving political landscape ahead of the next election cycle.
