As Kenya prepares for the October–December rainfall season, Mandera is among counties expected to receive above-average rainfall, with the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority forecasting the onset of the rains from the second and third weeks of October.
The forecast has raised concerns over possible flash floods in parts of Mandera, where settlements around natural drainage channels and riparian areas have previously experienced flooding.
KMSA says the 2026 short-rains season is expected to bring enhanced rainfall across much of the country, with prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms. The authority has also warned of potential impacts from evolving El Niño conditions and urged early preparedness.
In Mandera Municipality, preparations are already underway, with teams clearing and desilting culverts and improving drainage in areas considered vulnerable to flooding.
Municipal Manager Matker Mohamed Noor said protection works have also been undertaken along two main riparian areas, including stepped gabions along the Busle streams, where erosion has previously affected neighbouring properties.
“The Municipality has undertaken protection works along the two main existing riparian areas. We have also undertaken stepped gabion protection works along Busle streams,” Noor said.
The Municipality has identified Bulla Barwaqo, Bulla Township and Bulla Green as among the areas most exposed to flash floods.
Bulla Barwaqo is vulnerable to floodwater originating from across the Somalia border, while Bulla Township receives runoff from Bulla Hawa. Bulla Green is exposed to water flowing from Qarba Qoley.
A 650-metre trapezoidal drainage channel has been constructed in Bulla Barwaqo to improve drainage and reduce flooding in the area.
Municipal teams are also cleaning and unclogging culverts within the Central Business District, with further work planned to open side drains and maintain existing drainage infrastructure.
The Municipality has cautioned residents against blocking natural waterways with murram, dykes or other structures in an attempt to divert floodwater from their homes.
Noor said such interventions can obstruct natural drainage paths, alter the direction of water and increase the risk of flooding to neighbouring properties.
Residents have been advised to seek technical guidance before undertaking works that could interfere with natural waterways. They have also been urged to avoid low-lying areas, refrain from crossing fast-moving floodwater on foot or by vehicle, and follow official weather and flood advisories.
The Municipality is also preparing to improve access roads serving key facilities, including markets, hospitals, schools and mosques.
The preparations come as Mandera continues to deal with the effects of increasingly variable weather, having experienced both prolonged drought and damaging episodes of intense rainfall and flash flooding.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority says the current outlook requires counties and communities to move from early warning to early action as the onset of the short rains approaches.
For Mandera, where flash floods have previously disrupted homes, roads and livelihoods, early preparedness, timely response and community cooperation will be critical to reducing the impact of the rains and protecting lives and infrastructure.
